Gateway Market Intelligence
Sources & Methodology
Where our data comes from, how we build our models, and how we handle uncertainty — explained in full.
Every figure in a Gateway Market Intelligence report has a source. This page explains the categories of data we draw on, the methodology we apply when constructing financial models, and the conventions we use to signal data quality — so you always know what you're looking at and how much weight to place on it.
If you have a question about a specific figure in one of our reports that is not answered here, contact us and we will provide the source reference directly.
Primary Data Sources
We draw on four categories of source material. Each figure in our reports is tagged to one of these categories, and the specific source is cited at the point of use.
| Source Category | Examples | Data Type |
|---|---|---|
| Government & Municipal Records Audited | City and county lodging tax collection reports, gross receipts filings, Tennessee Department of Revenue data, US Census Bureau figures | Official audited financial records. Used for lodging tax collection tables, gross receipts trends, and population/demographic data. |
| National Park Service Audited | NPS Visitor Use Statistics (irma.nps.gov), Great Smoky Mountains NP annual visitation reports | Official visitor count data published by the federal government. Used for GSMNP annual visit figures and trend analysis. |
| Tourism Authority Publications Audited | Sevier County Tourism Board reports, Tennessee Tourism economic impact studies, Dollywood Company published figures | Officially published industry reports. Economic impact figures (e.g. Dollywood $1.8B) are sourced directly from authority publications and cited accordingly. |
| STR Platform Data Estimate | AirDNA MarketMinder, Rabbu, Mashvisor, direct Airbnb/VRBO listing analysis | Platform-derived aggregates and samples. ADR, occupancy, and average revenue figures derived from STR platforms are presented as estimates, with the platform and date of extraction noted. |
| Hotel Industry Benchmarks Estimate | STR (CoStar) market reports, CBRE Lodging Horizons, publicly available RevPAR data, brand disclosure statements | Hotel ADR and occupancy figures are drawn from published industry benchmarks or operator disclosures where available. Marked as estimates where direct audited data is not publicly accessible. |
| Analyst-Derived Calculations Derived | Revenue growth calculations, ADR premium ratios, cap rate estimates, scenario P&L outputs | Figures we calculate from source data — growth percentages, ratios, and financial model outputs. The underlying inputs and the calculation method are disclosed at the point of use. |
Financial Model Methodology
Our three-scenario STR financial models (Conservative, Typical Market, High-Performing) are built from the ground up for each market. They are not generic templates with the market name swapped in — the inputs are calibrated to the specific market's observable data.
Representative Property Definition
We define a representative subject property for each market — typically a 3-bedroom cabin or vacation home consistent with the dominant listing format in that market. The purchase price assumption is set at the approximate median for that property type based on current listing data, and is clearly stated at the top of the model.
Revenue Scenario Construction
The Conservative scenario uses ADR at the 25th percentile and occupancy at the lower bound of typical observed ranges for comparable listings. The Typical Market scenario uses the median ADR and median observed occupancy for the market. The High-Performing scenario uses the 75th percentile ADR and upper-bound occupancy consistent with top-quartile active listings. All revenue figures are gross platform revenue before deductions.
Expense Itemisation
We apply a full expense stack to each scenario: platform commission (typically 3% host fee), property management (20–25% of gross revenue for professionally managed properties), cleaning and supplies (based on local market rates and average booking duration), property insurance, utilities, HOA or resort fees where applicable, general maintenance reserve (typically 1–1.5% of property value annually), and property tax. Each line is itemised and the assumption is stated.
NOI and Cap Rate Calculation
Net Operating Income (NOI) is calculated as Gross Revenue minus all operating expenses, excluding mortgage debt service. This is a standard real estate investment metric. Cap Rate is calculated as NOI divided by the stated purchase price. Both figures are presented for all three scenarios. We do not present leveraged cash-on-cash return as a primary metric, as it varies significantly with financing terms.
What the Model Does Not Include
Our free snapshot P&L models do not include mortgage debt service, depreciation, tax treatment, or appreciation assumptions — these vary too greatly by individual investor circumstances to be generalised. The Full Report for each market includes a 10-year IRR model with leverage and appreciation sensitivity analysis. The free model is intentionally limited to the operating economics of the property itself.
Data Quality Conventions
All figures in our reports are tagged with one of three quality designations. These appear in report tables as column labels or inline parenthetical notes.
| Tag | What it means | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Audited | The figure comes directly from an official government, regulatory, or statutory filing. It has been through a formal audit or verification process by the issuing authority. | These figures can be relied upon as fact for the period stated. They may lag by one to two years due to publication schedules. |
| Estimate | The figure is derived from a credible third-party data provider (STR platform aggregator, industry benchmarking service) but has not been independently audited. It represents a good-faith best estimate based on available data. | Treat these as reliable indicators rather than precise facts. We note the source and extraction date. Where multiple sources exist, we disclose the range. |
| Derived | The figure is calculated by us from audited or estimated inputs. Examples include growth percentages, ADR premium ratios, and financial model outputs. | The quality of derived figures depends on the quality of the inputs. We state the inputs and method so you can assess the derivation yourself. |
Where a figure is unavailable or unreliable, we say so explicitly rather than using a placeholder or omitting the line. A noted data gap is more useful to an investor than a fabricated figure.
Data Currency & Update Policy
Each report states the data vintage at the front of the document — the date range covered by the primary data sets used. Reports are not evergreen documents; they reflect the market at the time of research.
Material corrections: If a primary source revises a figure we have relied upon, or if we identify an error in our own analysis, we issue a corrected version of the report and notify all purchasers by email at no charge.
Major updates: When sufficient new data has accumulated to materially change the investment picture — typically every 12–18 months — we publish an updated edition. Purchasers of the previous edition receive the updated edition at a discounted upgrade price, not full price.
STR platform data: Platform-derived figures (ADR, occupancy, average revenue) are the most volatile data category. We note the extraction month for all platform figures. Investors conducting active due diligence should refresh these figures against current platform data at the time of their analysis.
Important Disclaimer
Gateway Market Intelligence reports are provided for informational and research purposes only. Nothing in our reports constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any property, or a solicitation of any investment. All financial projections are illustrative scenarios based on market data and stated assumptions — they are not forecasts or guarantees of future performance.
Real estate investment involves significant risks, including loss of capital. Market conditions, regulatory environments, and operating costs change over time. Past performance of a market does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own independent due diligence and consult with qualified legal, financial, and tax advisers before making any investment decision.
Gateway Market Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or real estate agent in any jurisdiction.